EUR/USD

On the last trading session of the pair traded up to 1.2325 range in which the level is 38.2% Fib.Ret which are generally used for the retracement of the major trend. Bullish, but movements have a strong enough resistance where the range of 1.2345 is still strong to Resistance, Bias pair in the session this morning is a Bullish Bearish Momentum, be aware that an important level in the intraday session this time is the 1.24 range. If the range of 1.24 to Resistance confirmed the pair will return to weaken and potentially traded re-test range 1.2325 violated again and if successful will then go down then the Support is 1.2250, or 61.8% Wealth Fib.Ret. Instead watch out if the pair traded rose above the range of 1.24 and confirm it as well as managed to break 1.2445 support, then it will be situated next Resistance Wealth 1.2500/20.

EURUSD has traded with a 13 point range that is 11% of the Average Range 116 points and has diperdagangka gained +0.04% to +0.06% High and Low -0.05% from the close of trading yesterday.


Resistance Intraday 1.24 – 1.2445 – 1.25 – 1.2520
Support Intraday 1.2325 – 1.2250


GBP/USD

The pair traded rose and confirm the range of 1.5580 as Support after the BOE given inflation report in which the BOE Gov. Mervyn King believes that there needs to be easing and Cut Rate for the time being and he argues that economic growth will lag for 3 years. Bias and Momentum pair in the morning session today is Bullish, beware if the range of 1.5580 is violated and confirmed as the support it would be potentially traded pair rose to 1.5730 range. Conversely, if the range of 1.5680 is still acting as well as the Resistance the pair will potentially come back down to the range of 1.5580 again.

GBPUSD traded with a 27 point range is 24% of the Average Range 115 points and has been trading higher by +0.11% +0.16% High and Low -0.01% from the close of trading yesterday.


Resistance Intraday 1.5680 – 1.5730
Support Intraday 1.5650 – 1.5580


GOLD
Gold also rose after gold traded back to confirm the range of 1605 as a support in which gold is traded through the range of 1615 Resistance in the morning session today. Momentum Bias and Gold in the morning session today is Bullish, beware when gold traded higher and confirm the range of 1615 as a Support then be potentially traded gold rose back up to the 1625 range. Conversely, if the range of 1615 was confirmed as the Resistance would be potentially traded gold fell to a range of 1600 followed by 1585.


GOLD has been trading with a 4.60 point range is 29 points from Rang 16:03 Average point and has been trading higher by +0.22% +0.25% High and Low -0.04% from the close of trading yesterday.

Intraday Resistance 1625
Intraday Support 1615 - 1600 - 1585

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The Performance of EUR currency

The performance of EUR currency band is closely watched by global economists and analysts. As forecasted, the positive interest rate differential currency pairs (EUR/USD, EUR/CHF, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP and EUR/CAD) are continuously stabilized at their lower currency bands. AND, as forecasted, the negative currency pairs (EUR/AUD and EUR/GBP) have reached their previous lower currency bands.

The global economists forecasted that ECB will cut the rate 0.25 % by July 5, 2012 to lower the rate from the current 1.00 % to 0.75 %. The rate cut was indicated by ECB on last June 2012 as quoted by Bloomberg. The performance of EUR currency band however does not indicate the possibility of ECB to cut the rate as the positive pairs are being continuously stabilized at their lower currency bands and the negative pairs underway to visit and near their lower currency bands. Should ECB cut the rate, ECB may undertake large market sterilization to defend those pairs at lower currency bands to establish new lower currency bands before they are established to move to upward direction. Nonetheless, the ECB rate cut forecast is scheduled within the time framework of the currency band stabilization.

At such, both the negative and positive interest rate differential currency pairs are now being stabilized at their lower currency bands. Depending to the ECB's monetary policy decision in July 5, 2012 (tomorrow), Should ECB not to cut the rate, then both positive and negative interest rate differential currency pairs will initiate to move to upward direction (up-trending) to visit their upper currency bands, BUT should ECB to cut the rate as forecasted by the global economists, then positive and negative interest rate differential currency pairs may be stabilized at longer time before they move to upward direction (up-trending) or they may be under pressured to establish their new lower currency bands before they move to upward direction (up-trending). LONG on EUR currency band's currency pairs will be analyzed (currency by currency), particularly for the positive interest rate differential currency pairs.

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EUR Currency Band Forecast

EUR currency band near the market entry timing. As forecasted above, the positive pairs (EUR/USD, EUR/CHF, EUR/JPY, EUR/CAD and EUR/GBP) continuously stabilized at lower currency band to wait until the negative currency pairs (EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD) to reach their lower currency band. Both EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD already moved to near their previous lower currency bands. Cross currency band performance analysis with AUD and NZD currency bands is indicating that both EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD will break their previous lower currency bands until they are stabilized.

During the stabilization of EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD at their lower currency bands, the positive currency pairs will be under pressure and re-stabilized at their lower currency bands. Both the positive and negative currency pairs are expected to reach their equalized lowest measured average traded weighted rates in order to enter the market in July 2012. At such, both positive and negative pairs become commendable to long from their lowest measured average traded weighted rates at their lower currency bands to target their upper currency bands. The performance of EUR currency band is an indicator "the end of the EUR weakening against major currencies by average" and European economic and financial crisis may already hit the rock. Accordingly, EUR currency band becomes commendable to target by this July 2012.

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Additional portfolio Trading Pairs NZD/JPY

The first trade has been commenced today to Long NZD/JPY (details of trade not disclosed) to target 650 PIPs profit expectation. The funds utilized for margin/equity utilization is 2.02 % from total funds to target 41.80 % profit in July 2012. Additional portfolio will be added with maximum funds utilized for trading (margin) about 5 % from total funds. At such, there are still 2.98 % funds available to be utilized to trade other currency pairs to increase the profit expectation in July 2012.

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Analysts Currency NZD JPY AUD CAD CHF USD

After pressured down to the level of 0.7874 by pressuring the floating profit, NZD/USD will resume to move to upward direction. The previous target 0.8440 for (0.8440-0.7557) 897 PIPs profit expectation may not be reached as the result of the alignment and re-alignment on USD/JPY performance. Accordingly, the target will be adjusted dependance to the performance of NZD currency band. The upper currency band of the NZD/USD will be under pressure to align and re-align to downward direction in response to the align and realign to upward direction for USD/JPY to maintain the global equilibrium. At what rate the upper currency band will be measured in the future.

After pressured down to the level of 1.0280, AUD/CAD will resume to move to upward direction to visit the target at 1.0800 for the 570 PIPs profit expectation. The target may be extended for another 250 PIPs to increase to 820 PIPs or more. The long-term performance of USD/CAD is confirming such extension, but will be measured in the future.

After pressured down to the level of 0.9590 by pressuring the floating profit, the pair will resume to move to upward direction to visit the target at 0.9950 for 480 PIPs. The target however may be extended for another 500 PIPs as indicated by the performance of USD/CHF. USD/CHF long-term performance is underway to 1.2500 from the current 0.9600. The actual target can only be assessable and measurable dependance to the performance of both AUD and CHF currency bands in the future.However, increasing the target is "on-hand".

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AUD CURRENCY BAND PERFORMANCE AND FORECASTS

AUD/CHF broken its central currency band at 0.9575 and to move to upward to the level of 0.9675. At the same time, AUD/CAD near the central currency band at 1.0400. Both AUD/USD and AUD/JPY remains too low below their central currency bands. EUR/AUD also broken its central currency band at 1.2550 and continue to move to downward direction to visit 1.2400. GBP/AUD move to downward direction near the central currency band at 1.5200/1.5300. AUD currency band performance inline to the forecasts.

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JPY CURRENCY BAND PERFORMANCE AND FORECASTS

The performance of the "lower currency band" of the USD/JPY interior the JPY currency band is "aligned" to upward direction for 50 PIPs from the previous 77.00 to 77.50. As illustrated above, the lowest level visited by USD/JPY was 78.00 or about 100 PIPs above the previous lower currency band (77.00) and about 50 PIPs above the current "aligned lower currency band" (77.50).

The alignment of the lower currency band to upward direction is very critical for the future performance of JPY currency band and will impact the performance of all JPY-pairs in AUD, NZD, EUR, GBP, USD, CHF and CAD currency bands. Should the USD/JPY lower currency band to be re-aligned up to the level of 78.00 (the previous lowest visited by the pair as illustrated above), then all JPY-pairs will move to upward direction. The performance of JPY currency band, the largest by volume of carry trader's currency have major impact to the performance of all currency bands. However, so long the level of 79.70/80.00 not strongly broken by the pair, all other JPY-pairs will continue to move as forecasted. In the case the level to be broken strongly, then AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY will move to upward direction at slower rate and followed by EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, CAD/JPY, CHF/JPY sharply to upward direction.

The performance of USD/JPY interior the JPY currency band is critical not only to measure its impact to other JPY-pairs, IN ADDITION TO THAT, should the 78.00 to be strongly defended, then JPY will be consistently to be weakened by USD and to move to upward direction in long-term (economic performance cycle) and will drive all carry traders to be aggressively to enter the market together with macro traders.

In return, the future trading activity/operation will be more and more profitable when compared to the previous years (2008-2011). At such, US economy will continue to grow at faster rate, European economy will hit the rock and slower and gradually to recovery trend, AND Asian economy under going to "economic and financial crisis". This economic performance cycle will be seen in the future if the level of 78.00 to be strongly defended in the market. Keep in mind, BOJ's long term interest rate benchmark "easing" as illustrated above.

The alignment of the USD/JPY lower currency band to upward direction from the previous 77.00 to 77.50 can not be used as an indication of BOJ to narrow the currency band as the previous upper currency band 84.00 remains confirmed. However, should the previous upper currency band (84.00) to be aligned to downward (at least defended at 82.00), then it could be confirmed that inter-central banks communications by and between the BOJ and the FED have agreed to narrow the band. Unless this indicator to be well performed interior the JPY and USD currency bands, it is too early to say that USD/JPY currency band under going to "narrowing band".

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NZD CURRENCY BAND PERFORMANCE AND FORECAST

NZD/CHF move to upward direction/up-trending and currently near the central current band 0.7550 (central currency band 0.7600) as forecasted. Both NZD/USD and NZD/JPY remains too low below their central currency bands. Similar to NZD/CHF, the EUR/NZD moved to downward direction/down-trending to visit near the lower currency band at 1.5850 (central currency band 1.5800) as forecasted. GBP/NZD also moved to downward direction/down-trending but remains high above the central currency band. All currency pairs move inline to the forecasts.

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NZD CURRENCY BAND PERFORMANCE AND FORECAST

RBNZ holds the OCR at 2.50 % by maintaining NZD currency as the second highest interest rate among the major currencies after AUD. Capital inflow will continue to strengthen NZD in the market driven by the continuing the flow of funds invested by the global investors into NZD currency and NZD-denominated interest bearing securities (over-demand).

After strongly defended at lower currency band (0.7450), NZD/USD moved to upward direction/up-trending and will continue to the estimated upper currency band (0.8450) for 1000 PIPs exchange rate target zone. The estimated central currency band is 0.8300 and the pair is currently at 0.7825 (See: Long Position on NZD/USD). At 0.8300, NZD/USD may under pressure to downward temporary before the pair resumed to move to upward direction/up-trending to visit the target.

After strongly defended at lower currency band (0.7050), NZD/CHF moved to upward direction/up-trending and will continue to move to visit the estimated upper currency band (0.7750) for 750 PIPs exchange rate target zone. The central currency band is estimated at 0.7600 at which level the NZD/CHF may under pressure to downward before resumed to move to upward diection/up-trending to visit the target. The pair is currently at 0.7450 near the central currency band.

After strongly defended at lower currency band (58.50), NZD/JPY moved to upward direction/up-trending and will continue to move to upward to visit the estimated upper currency band (69.50) for 1000 PIPs exchange rate target zone. The central currency band is estimated at 67.50 and the pair is currently at 62.20 (See: Long Position on NZD/JPY). At 67.50, the pair may under pressure to downward before resumed to upward direction to visit the target.

After strongly defended at upper currency band (1.6950), EUR/NZD moved to downward direction/down-trending and will continue to move to downward to visit the estimated lower currency band (1.5600) for 1350 PIPs exchange rate target zone. The central currency band is estimated at 1.5800 at which level the pair may rebound to upward before resumed to downward direction/down-trending to visit the lower currency band. The pair is currently at 1.6120.

After strongly defended at upper currency band (2.1000), GBP/NZD moved to downward direction/down-trending and will continue to move to downward to visit the estimated lower currency band (1.8800) for 2200 PIPs exchange rate target zone. The pair is currently at 1.9850. The estimated central currency band is 1.9200 at which level the pair may rebound to upward before resumed to downward direction/down-trending to visit the lower currency band.

AND/NZD will continue to range bound defendant to the differential of capital inflow to AUD and NZD currencies and their denominated interest bearing securities. Both of them are high yielding currencies which are the primary target for carry traders and macro traders.

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Trading Today Pairs With Low Risk

During this early Asian morning session, NZD/JPY visited the level of 62.02 for (62.02-60.80) 122 PIPs floating profit. However, the pair may be stabilized at that level if USD/JPY to be unable to break the 80.00. The pair however remains possible to visit the level of 63.50 before strongly stabilized and to resume to upward to visit the target at 68.80.

AUD/CHF will be stabilized at central currency band 0.9550/0.9600 before the pair resumed to upward direction to visit the upper currency band at 0.9950. AUD/CHFwill resume to move faster to upward direction when USD/CHF to be defended at central currency band . AUD/CHF visited the 0.9524 during this early Asian morning session for (0.9524-0.9470) 54 PIPs floating profit.

NZD/USD visited the level of 0.7790 during this early Asian morning session for (9,7790-7695) 95 PIPs floating profit.The is "consistently" to move to upward direction.

AUD/CAD visited the level of 1.02340 during this early Asian morning session for (1.02340-1.0230) for 10 PIPs floating profit. Although the pair remains under pressure to stabilize as the result of the strengthening on CAD by the USD, the pair will "consistently" to move to upward to visit the target.

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AUD Currency Bands Today

High yielding currencies continue to perform the most consistent of movements interior their currency bands. AUD/USD moved from 0.9630 to 1.0011 and will continue to visit the level of 1.0850. Higher or lower shall subject to the performance of the equal average highest traded weighted rate with other AUD positive interest rate differential currency pairs. Similarly, AUD/CHF visited the level of 0.9525 from the level of 0.9225 and will continue to move to upward direction to visit the level of 0.9950, higher or lower subject to the performance of the equal highest average traded weighted rate with other AUD pairs. AUD/JPY also moved from 75.00 to 79.50 and will continue to 88.50, higher or lower subject to the performance of the measured equal highest average traded weighted rate with other AUD pairs. AUD/CAD also moved from 0.9950 to 1.0050 and will continue to upward direction to the level of 1.0750, higher or lower shall subject to the measured equal average traded weighted rate with AUD pairs. But, AUD/NZD, the two of the high yielding currencies tend to be flat to range bound as investors continue to invest their funds into to the two currencies and their denominated interest bearing securities. By opposite, EUR/AUD moved from 1.3000 to 1.2600 and will continue to move to downward direction to visit the level of 1.2150, lower or higher subject to the measured performance of the equal average traded weighted rate of the AUD pairs as well as GBP/NZD moved from 1.6150 to 1.5500 and will continue to move to downward direction to visit the level of 1.4600, lower or higher shall subject to the performance of the measured equal average traded weighted rate of AUD pairs. USD-, CHF-, JPY-, EUR- and GBP-funds are continuously invested into AUD currency and AUD-denominated interest bearing securities to cause over demand on the AUD and to strengthen the currency against major currencies. However, correction on their rates during the movements to be made as the result of their interest rate differential based currency correlation with their major currency pairs. Nonetheless, their currency bands are strongly performed as the strongest together with NZD in the market.

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EUR CURRENCY BAND REMAINS AT RISK

The EUR positive interest rate differential currency pairs (EUR/USD, EUR/CHF, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP and EUR.CAD) stabilized at their new lower currency band and by average tend to be move to upward direction. HOWEVER, they are still under pressure by the continuing movements of the EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD to downward direction. Accordingly, those pairs will remains possible to be under pressure to the previous lows until both EUR/AUD and GBP/NZD to reach their lower currency band. At such, all EUR currency pairs (positive and negative) shall be defended at their lower currency bands before they are consistently to move to upward direction consistently.

BUT AND HOWEVER, the current economic and financial crisis may to cause mixed performance and to put them at the highest risk to rate whereby all stop loss positions remains possible to be touched. This is confirmed by the previous trades on EUR/GBP whereby the weakening on GBP against major currencies has minor impact to strengthen EUR against GBP. Currency pair by currency pair analysis interior the currency band is probably the best approach during this time until the economic recovery in the European area to hit the lowest rock.

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AUD Currency Today With Risk-free Trading Position

AUD/CAD Pair 
The released weaker than expected on the AUD retail sales for April 2012 at -0.2 % M/M have impacted the performance of AUD/CAD by pressuring the pair to revisit the market entry rate. This is to confirm that CAD-based funds are not only invested into AUD currency and AUD-denominated interest bearing securities but also into AUD-denominated equities. The weakening retail sales performance will pressure the free-cash flow of the Australian retailing business and ultimately to pressure the dividend payout expectation and the expected earning per share (EPS). As the result, the stock return expectation to be under pressure and to drive the CAD-based funds to liquidate their investment from AUD-denominated equities for profit taking. The performance of AUD/CAD interior the time series interest rate differential based exchange rate targets and currency band however does not indicate that AUD/CAD to revisit the level of 0.9950/60. The lowest level that may be revisit is 1.0000 and at such, the Long position on AUD/CAD remains active.

AUD/CHF Pair

AUD/CHF visited the level of 0.9472 by today for (0.9472-0.9355) 117 PIPs floating profit. The pair is consistently to move to upward direction and it is expected to break the level of 0,9500. Should the pair break the level of 0.9560 and strongly defended, the Long position on the AUD/CHF could be managed at risk free trading position with protected profit and to hold to target the 0.9900 for 545 PIPs profit expectation. Subject to the performance of USD/CHF and AUD/USD, the target may be extended in the future to increase the profit expectation from both AUD appreciation and the overnight rollover fee from their interest rate differential.

The released weaker than expected on the AUD retail sales has minor impact on the performance of AUD/CHF. This is to confirm that CHF-based funds are largely invested into AUD-denominated interest bearing securities (carry trading). The pair will be consistently to move to upward direction and the long position remains active.



GBP/AUD Pair
The released weaker than expected on the AUD retail sales for April 2012 at -0.2 % M/M have impacted the performance of GBP/AUD by revisit the level of 1.5976 to indicate that GBP-based funds are not only invested into AUD currency and AUD-denominated interest bearing securities. It seems, the GBP-based funds are also invested into AUD-denominated equities. The weakening performance on the retail sales will pressure the "free-cash flow" of the Australian retailing business and absolutely to pressure the dividend payout expectation and to pressure the earning per share (EPS) to drive GB_based funds to liquidate their investment from AUD-denominated equities for profit taking and to pressure GBP/AUD by revisiting the 1.5976. However, GBP/AUD performance interior the interest rate differential based exchange rate targets and currency band is confirming that the pair will consistently to move to downward direction despite minor challenges from the equity trading activity. The performance to downward direction also confirmed by the current performance of their interest rate differential based currency correlation. At such, the short position remains active.

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Analysts Currency Pair With Low Risk For Trading May 16, 2012

AUD/NZD: The pair bullish to the level of 1.2915 today for (1.2915-1.2774) 141 PIPs floating profit. The pair remains forecasted to visit the target at 1.3150 for (1.3150-1.2774) 376 PIPs profit expectation. The stop loss remains at 1.2700.

GBP/JPY: The pair visited the level of 128.03 by today. There are three short positions on GBP/JPY at 129.32, 128.68, and 128.00. The floating profit is 129.32-128.03 (129 PIPs), 128.68-128.03 (65 PIPs) and 128.00-128.03 (-3 PIPs). The stop loss remains at 131.00. The pair will be hold to target at 118.00 for (129.32-118.00) 1132 PIPs, (128.68-118.00) 1068 PIPs, and for (128.00-118.00) 1000 PIPs profit expectation.

EUR/AUD: The pair visited the level of 1.2810 today for (1.2857-1.2810) 47 PIPs floating profit. The stop loss remains at 1.3050. The pair will continue to move to downward direction to visit the target at 1.2150 for (1.2857-1.2150) 707 PIPs profit expectation.

GBP/AUD: The pair was pressured down to the level of 1.6020 for (1.6044-1.6020) 24 PIPs floating profit. The stop loss remains at 1.6200. The pair is forecasted to move to downward direction to visit the target at 1.4600 for (1.6044-1.4600) 1444 PIPs profit expectation.

NOTICE: This equilibrium trading strategy almost similar to carry trading and macro-trading strategy (position trading) by holding the trading positions for 30 days to 90 days.This is not suitable for news traders, day traders, intraday traders, short-term technical traders, momentum traders, swing traders, and other high-frequency traders. You shall not follow this trading unless you are aware the risk associated to position trading and may not allowed by your brokers by holding such long period of trading positions.

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Analysts Currency Pair With Low Risk For Trading May 15, 2012

GBP/JPY: The pair remains stable at the range 129.00-128.00 within the range of the market entry rates at 129.32, 128.68 and 128.00. The pair will continue to move to downward direction and forested to visit the target at 118.00 as confirmed by the interest rate differential correlation between GBP/USD, GBP/JPY and USD/JPY interior the GBP currency band. The stop loss remains at 131.00.

AUD/NZD: Similar to GBP/JPY, the AUD/NZD remains stable at 1.2800-1.2850 above the market entry rate at 1.2774. Both currency band and currency correlation analysis interior the currency band remains to confirm that the AUD/NZD will move to upward direction to visit the target at 1.3150. The long position to continue to generate two sources of profits, the AUD appreciation by the NZD and the overnight rollover fee from their interest rate differential. This fee is more than enough to cover the cost on the overnight rollover fee on the three short positions for GBP/JPY.

EUR/AUD: The pair remains stable at market entry rate at 1.2857. As previously stated, the stop loss was adjusted down to the level of 1.3050 after the AUD/JPY to be corrected interior the AUD currency band. The target remains 1.2150. Similar to long position on AUD/NZD, the short position on EUR/AUD is generating two sources of profit, the AUD appreciation by the GBP plus the overnight rollover fee from their interest rate differential.

GBP/AUD: GBP/AUD moved to upward direction to the level of 1.6180 near the stop loss at 1.6200. The short market entry rate is 1.6070 to target 1.4600. The stop loss may be adjusted to upward by increasing the risk on the stop loss, subject to however to be confirmed by the average performance of GBP currency band's currency pairs and current performance of all open trading positions to maintain the level of risk assumed.

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