JP Morgan previously forecasted that the next Asian crisis will be worsen than 1997/1998. However, it is not indicated the timing and the causes of the worsen. The following analysis is trying to measure the timing and the causes of the worsen.
Long term currency band analytical model has confirmed that JPY is underway to long-term weakening against USD. The pair was strongly defended at 75.00 (the previous lower currency band) and moved to upward direction to visit the level of 84.00 by breaking the semi-annually highest measured average traded weighted rate at 82.00. The pair under pressured down to the level of 77.00 (the following previous lower currency band) and resumed to move to upward to visit the level of 80.50. The pair was pressured again but strongly defended at 78.00 (the current lower currency band). It is confirmed, overtime the lower currency bands were aligned and re-aligned to upward direction for about 200 PIPs by 200 PIPs. At the same time, the upper currency bands continuously to align and re-align to upward direction. At such, both the lower and upper currency bands underway to align to upward direction to confirm that USD/JPY will be continuously to move to upward direction in "long-term" to weaken JPY against USD.
Long-term currency band analytical models has confirmed that AUD is underway to long-term weakening against USD. After strongly defended at 1.1200, the upper currency bands were continuously to align and re-align to downward direction from 1.1200, 1.1000, 1,0800. The lower currency bands however remains at mixed performance. But, the continuing on the weakening of the Australian economy will pressure the RBA to cut the rates overtime (easing policy - rate cutting) in long-term and this will pressure the lower currency bands to align and re-align to downward overtime in parallel to the upper currency bands.
Long-term currency band analytical models has confirmed that NZD is underway to long-term weakening against USD.
